• Karp Pond Hockey League

Eastern Wildcard coming down to the wire

2024-03-26

The Eastern Wildcard race is not only one that seems it will be decided on game 82, but is also between 8 teams (and for the purposes of this article will not include the teams that currently sit in one of the current top 3 spots in the Metro or Atlantic division). At this time of writing there is an 8 point gap between the top wild card (Devils - 85 points) team and the bottom wild card team (Flyers - 77 points). The key to this final stretch for these teams, may come down to tiebreakers with outright points potentially being tied. The tiebreakers used to determine who wins in the sim are decided by the 2019 NHL tiebreakers which are as follows: GP, Regular W, ROW, Total W, Points vs Other.

Games played at the end of the season will be tied (82 played for all), so the next set are what we will dive into for a bit. Regular or Regulation Wins are the next tiebreakers, followed by Regulation + Overtime Wins, then Total Wins (these include shootout wins). So lets take a look at the standings and then a small breakdown on the teams involved and where they stand on tiebreakers.

Name TW RW ROTW OTW SOW
Devils 39 30 31 1 8
Sabres 38 25 29 4 9
Red Wings 37 29 31 2 6
Canadiens 36 24 30 6 6
Senators 36 26 29 3 7
Hurricanes 34 23 30 7 4
Islanders 34 26 29 3 5
Flyers 33 27 29 2 4

 

Currently the leader for the Regulation Wins tiebreaker is the Devils at 30, who are then closely followed by Detroit at 29. The next closest in this tiebreaker are the Flyers at 27. When factoring in overtime wins plus those regulation wins (ROTW), the aforementioned Devils and Red Wings tie at 31, followed by the Canadiens (6 overtime wins) and Hurricanes (7 overtime wins) witha total of 30 ROTW. As with all these stats, there isnt a huge drop off to the next in line with the remaining teams tied at 29 ROTW each. And last tiebreaker to be mentioned hereis total wins, which is only seperates the top 5 teams in this category by a total of 3, with the Devils at the top with 39, followed by Sabres at 38, Red Wings at 37, and the Canadiens and Senators tied at 36.

Despite all this, the biggest factor in this final leg of the season is likely the remaining games played. The Devils, Hurricanes, and Flyers all have the fewest games remaining (9) with the Senators still having 12 games remaining. Schedule makers must be proud of themselves as well, given the remaining opponents most of these wildcard teams have against each other. In a stat I'll label Wildcard Opponents (WCO, which includes the Rangers, Lightning, and Panthers given proximety to the prior 8 team point totals), one could say that the Canadiens have the most "control your own destiny" remaining schedule with 10 games left against WCOs. The Hurricanes on the other hand, have the fewest with only 2 WCOs.

 

  WCO
NJD 5
BUF 6
DET 7
MTL 10
OTT 6
CAR 2
NYI 7
PHI 6