Standing Projections Quarter Pole Check-In

Since everyone else is checking in on their preseason projections, let’s see how the post-draft model is holding up at the quarter pole. https://kphl.simhockey.ca//news.php?article=3

Biggest Surprises:

Philadelphia Flyers – Projected 70 – Actual Pace 117 – Differential +47

The model was not a big fan of either the Flyers forwards, which it ranked as the second worst, or their goalies, which ranked as the seventh worst in the league. Of course that goalie ranking came before they traded Carter Hart to the Sabres, and I don’t think any model would have predicted a Craig Anderson/Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen tandem would both be putting up over 0.915 save percentages through 20 games. Meanwhile, Travis Konecny, Tyler Seguin, and Max Domi are all over a point per game up front.

New Jersey Devils – Projected 87 – Actual Pace 117 – Differential +30

The model saw New Jersey as a kind of meh team from top to bottom, with the 8th worst forward core and neither their defense or goaltending ranking in either the top or bottom 10. In reality, Jack Hughes has put up 32 points in 19 games, and Sergei Bobrovsky and Vitek Vanecek are both over 0.924. It’s just unfortunate for them that as of this writing, three of the top 4 teams in the league are in the Metro, and the fourth is also in the East with them.

Columbus Blue Jackets – Projected 93 – Actual Pace 114 – Differential +21

Rounding out the trio of Metropolitan surprises is Columbus, who was projected to have a top-half forward core, but middle of the road D and a bottom 10 goaltending tandem.  As is the case with the other two, their hot start can mostly be attributed to a hot start from Elvis Merzlikins, who is putting up a 0.929

Biggest Disappointments:

Edmonton Oilers – Projected 110 – Actual Pace 78 – Differential -32

The model of course loved the combination of McDavid and Draisaitl, predicting Edmonton to have the third best forward core in the league. McDavid has 25 points in 19 games and Draisaitl has 16, and the only really obvious flaw is Mike Smith’s 0.893 in 9 games at this point.

St. Louis Blues – Projected 105 – Actual Pace 68 – Differential -37

The model’s second favorite forward core is also having a disappointing season. But it seems likely the Blues are due for some regression, as they are top half in both most goals for and fewest against at this point in the season.

Boston Bruins – Projected 117 – Actual Pace 78 – Differential -39

It seems that the model’s idea of a valuable forward group and the sim’s are totally at odds, as the Bruins came into the year with the top rated forward group. Patrice Bergeron has only 4 points in 19 games, despite being rated one of the most valuable forwards in the entire league, and the Bruins have the 4th fewest goals for in the league.

Biggest Robby:

Chicago Blackhawks – Projected 61 – Actual Pace 5 – Differential -59

Sometimes a team just has such a coherent identity that no computer could ever hope to calculate their overall team performance from just a sum of their parts. Shame that Robby is going to either end up picking 3rd or forfeiting his 1st rounder.