Early Playoff and Draft Projections
2023-01-27Since most teams have played more than 1/2 their schedule, I'd figure it'd be a good time to start looking at current playoff hopefuls and who may end up winning the Bedard Sweepstakes (praise be the lotto). Okay lets start with current standings as of 1/26:
Atlantic
Panthers* - 65
Canadiens* - 60
Red Wings* - 60
Maple Leafs* - 59
Bruins - 54
Sabres - 49
Senators - 48
Lightning - 44
Metro
Hurricanes* - 65
Flyers* - 64
Rangers* - 62
Devils* - 59
Blue Jackets - 58
Penguins - 51
Islanders - 46
Capitals - 44
So in the East as it currently stands, both the Metro and Atlantic would be sending 4 teams with Devils and Maple Leafs in as the WCs. With only a handful of teams on the outside looking in, but the race should still be pretty tight with plenty of season to go: Blue Jackets (58), Bruins (54), Penguins (51). First Round matchups would look something like this:
Panthers - Devils
Canadiens - Red Wings
Hurricanes - Maple Leafs
Flyers - Rangers
In the West, things are a bit closer and can certainly change on a day to day basis with 7 teams vying for 2 Wild Card spots, here are where teams currently stand:
Central
Jets* 75
Avalanche* 61
Predators* 54
Wild* 53
Coyotes 49
Stars 48
Blues 46
Blackhawks 21
Pacific
Canucks* 72
Golden Knights* 67
Flames* 54
Kings* 53
Oilers 52
Kraken 50
Sharks 47
Ducks 39
Similar to the Eastern Conference, the Western Divisions will be represetend each by 4 teams currently. with 6 teams on the outside within striking distance of only 7 points (Oilers, Kraken, Coyotes, Stars, Sharks, Blues). Current matchups would be the follwing:
Jets - Kings (by way of pt%)
Avalanche - Predators
Canucks - Wild
Golden Knights - Flames
Some interesting matchups between GMs there, given the rivalry between Vancouver and Minnesota.
And Lastly a quick simulation of the lotto. With the Blackhawks leading the way, current seeding would be as follows:
Blackhawks
Ducks
Lightning
Capitals
Islanders
Blues
Sharks
Senators
Stars
Coyotes
Sabres
Kraken
Penguins
Oilers
Bruins
Blue Jackets
With the simulation ran, this model projected two teams to jump in the lotto, with the Blues jumping from 6th to 1st and the Sabres jumping from 11th to 2nd. Based on early mocks our top 3 would look like the following: Blues would be adding potential generational player Connor Bedard, Sabres get to re-join Michigan Alumni and select Adam Fantilli, and the Blackhawks bring Sweden's own Leo Carlsson.
But given that most teams have around 30 games to go, any of the above could change by the time we get to the end of the season, and theres certainly no telling how the ping pong balls will bounce before draft night.