Points Projections and Playoff Chances

2022-10-18

So... I'm back with a math article as I watch the Flyers powerplay once again falter... I went through and collected the rosters for every NHL player on each team and aggregated scores based on forward and defensive lines and goalies. I then did some weighting and magic before looking at the range of possible point totals based on the best and worst teams all time and the internal variation of the teams in the league. Below you will see my projected points for each team and their playoff chances based on the probability they are better than the 9th best team in the conference. There was plenty of handwavy stuff, but in short here's what I found (broken down by division):

Team	Pt Projection	Playoff Chances	Team	Pt Projection	Playoff Chances
Vegas	113	98.52%	Colorado	105	93.65%
Calgary	113	98.45%	Nashville	102	89.53%
Vancouver	103	90.29%	Minnesota	92	65.02%
Seattle	84	39.95%	Winnipeg	88	53.37%
Edmonton	80	28.56%	St. Louis	87	51.42%
Los Angeles	79	26.26%	Dallas	74	13.21%
Anaheim	75	15.71%	Arizona	47	0.04%
San Jose	44	0.02%	Chicago	14	0.00%

Team	Pt Projection	Playoff Chances	Team	Pt Projection	Playoff Chances
Florida	96	76.58%	Pittsburgh	104	91.85%
Tampa Bay	90	58.72%	Carolina	98	82.47%
Boston	86	45.82%	New York Rangers	97	80.47%
Toronto	86	45.31%	New York Islanders	86	48.27%
Montreal	82	34.53%	Columbus	85	43.09%
Detroit	78	22.76%	New Jersey	74	14.66%
Ottowa	78	21.56%	Washington	63	2.45%
Buffalo	74	13.76%	Philadelphia	47	0.05%

Note that these actually look somewhat similar to the rankings done by Florida (although mine seem to punish the bad teams a LOT more. Probably because I ignore more of the in-season variation. Here's the comparison of playoff teams:

Conf rank	Team	Pts	Florida's Ranking	Consensus Playoff Team
1	Vegas	113	4	x
2	Calgary	113	7	x
3	Colorado	105	8	x
4	Vancouver	103	1	x
5	Nashville	102	2	x
6	Minnesota	92	9
7	Winnipeg	88	10
8	St. Louis	87	5	x
9	Seattle	84	NR
10	Edmonton	80	3
11	Dallas	74	6

Conf rank	Team	Pts	Florida's Ranking	Consensus Playoff Team
1	Pittsburgh	104	3	x
2	Carolina	98	6	x
3	New York Rangers	97	8	x
4	Florida	96	2	x
5	Tampa Bay	90	4	x
6	New York Islanders	86	5	x
7	Boston	86	1	x
8	Toronto	86	7	x
9	Columbus	85	NR
10	Montreal	82	NR
11	Detroit	78	10
12	Ottowa	78	9

So yeah. Congrats to those who have already made the playoffs. Congrats to me on another year of mediocrity as a fringe playoff team in another league.

Best,

Justin